Prudential Sugar DCF Value

DCF Assumptions

Base DCF · ₹48

Base is the production estimate: 25% Bull + 50% model base case + 25% Bear, weighted before rounding. The model base case alone is ₹48.

Normalized starting FCF (₹ crore)

10.32

Stored company classification

moderately_cyclical

FCF growth in years 1–5

25/50/25 mixture of the three growth paths

Stored revenue growth assumption

4.20%

Discount rate / WACC

10.00%

Terminal growth

5.00%

Stored shares (crore)

3.58

Net debt / (net cash), ₹ crore

38.61

The existing production model grows normalized FCF at the selected revenue-growth assumption for five years; it does not taper growth or add a separate margin improvement.

DCF Calculation

Amounts in ₹ crore. Base rows are probability-weighted cash flows, not a single growth path. Swipe tables horizontally on smaller screens.

PV of projected cash flows

44.06

Terminal FCF

13.37

Terminal value

267.32

Discounted terminal value

165.99

Enterprise value

210.04

Less net debt / (net cash)

38.61

Equity value

171.43

Reconciled per-share value (₹)

47.89

PV = FCF ÷ (1 + WACC)^year. Terminal value = Year 5 FCF × (1 + terminal growth) ÷ (WACC − terminal growth). Equity value = enterprise value − net debt; per-share value = equity value ÷ shares.

Underlying model scenarios

Bear growth = max(clamped growth − 3 percentage points, −2%). Bull growth = min(clamped growth + 3 percentage points, 35%). WACC, terminal growth, shares and net debt are common to all cases.

DCF Sensitivity Analysis

Diagnostic values use the existing production DCF function with unchanged FCF, growth, shares and net debt. Columns vary terminal growth; rows vary WACC. These values do not change the selected scenario.

Forward DCF asks what the business is worth given our assumptions. Reverse DCF asks what operating assumptions would justify the current market price.

Current market price

₹14.72

Normalized starting FCF

₹10.32 Cr

WACC

10.00%

Terminal growth

5.00%

Net debt / (net cash)

₹38.61 Cr

Shares outstanding

3.58 Cr

Forecast period

5 years

Reverse DCF is not a prediction. It derives the growth input needed to reconcile the model with the market price while holding the displayed Base inputs constant. The current production model's Bull/Bear offsets, growth clamps and 25%/50%/25% weighting remain active. The solver searches the existing −5% to 30% base-growth bounds; it never extrapolates beyond them.

The calculation relies on rounded stored inputs and the disclosed net-debt/cash source. It is unavailable if the current bridge does not reconcile with stored production outputs. A cash proxy is not verified cash and equivalents.

Input provenance and reconciliation

All stored scenario outputs and the weighted production DCF reconcile at their published rupee precision.

Stored assumptions are rounded. The original valuation run’s full-precision inputs and net debt were not retained. Current cached debt/cash totals; original run inputs not retained

Ratio record calculated_at (not a dedicated DCF timestamp): 2026-08-28T16:23:42.536. Financial cache: indianapi_backfill1500, fetched 2026-08-15T17:19:48.35+00:00. The cache table’s historical name does not identify the actual provider.

Normalized FCF is read directly from the stored production valuation, not replaced with latest-year FCF. Cached history provides context; it is not a retained record of the original run’s input selection.